The analysis of competing hypotheses (ARC) in the assessment of chemical wafare activities

This study contributes to the theory and practice of how chemical weapons programmers and activity can be evaluated in the context of the international prohibition against their development, production, stockpiling, transfer and use as reflected in the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention. It presents an application of a hybrid and qualitative variation of Heuer's Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ARC) directed towards arms control verification and intelligence practice using three case studies: the Soviet Union, Iraq, and suspected at al-Qaeda affiliates. This study is comprehensive and multidisciplinary in approach, rather than reductionist. It draws on a very large array of data as they rate to the technical, military and politico-strategic characteristics of chemical warfare, linking a large number of historical detail with conceptual insight into the nature of chemical warfare and chemical weapons arms control.