Toward a secure and stable northern Mali

The 2012 conflict in northern Mali has shown that many assumptions about Mali's political stability, internal cohesion, and military capabilities were deeply flawed. The January 2013 French-led military intervention scattered the insurgents, but the conditions and drivers that brought about the crisis in the first place have yet to be addressed. This report is intended to assist with the post-conflict planning in northern Mali by examining the historical, economic, and social factors that drive conflict in northern Mali and the different groups that have been involved in the conflict. The authors argue that, in the absence of a large international presence, durable security in northern Mali will have to be provided, to a large extent, by local actors. The authors draw on historical examples of rebellions in Mali since 1916 to show how detailed knowledge of the different local actors and their political dynamics can help in finding solutions that will bring lasting security and stability to the region.