Idiosyncratic risk and volatility bounds, or can models with idiosyncratic risk solve the equity premium puzzle?

Idiosyncratic risk and volatility bounds, or can models with idiosyncratic risk solve the equity premium puzzle?

by Martin Lettau

Book 130 of no.

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"This paper uses Hansen and Jagannathan's (1991) volatility bounds to evaluate models with idiosyncratic consumption risk. I show that idiosyncratic risk does not change the volatility bounds at all when consumers have CRRA preferences and the distribution of the idiosyncratic shock is independent of the aggregate state. Following Mankiw (1986), I thenshow that idiosyncratic risk can help to enter the bounds when idiosyncratic uncertainty depends on the aggregate state of the economy. Since individual consumption data are notreliable, I compute an upper bound of the volatility bounds using individual income dataand assume that agents have to consume their endowment. I find that the model does notpass the Hansen and Jagannathan test even for very volatile idiosyncratic income data"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site.

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