Ethiopia

In the short to medium terms, Ethiopia is likely to remain stable but brittle. The authoritarian ruling party, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, has consolidated power across all levels of government and society, efficiently suppressing political opposition. The choice of a long-term successor to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is likely to expose tensions within the ruling EPRDF and its ethnically defined subparties, and exacerbate friction between some of Ehtiopia's most volatile regions. Ethiopia faces multiple security threats, which taken alone can be contained by the military but if comgined would threaten to overwhelm the state, triggering serious instability and violence. Constant vigilance is required by Ethiopia to prevent its enemies in Eritrea and Somalia from linking up with internal armed groups such as the Oromo Libeeration Front and the Ogaden National Liberation Front.