Cognition and Chance

"The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety or irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivete, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilities the misinterpretation of statistical information, precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims, and generally undercuts rational thinking in numerous ways. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way." "In this book, Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty and people as intuitive probabilists." "Cognition and Chance in intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business economies, decision theory, and social dilemmas."--BOOK JACKET.