Anatomizing non-state threats to Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure

The greatest threat to Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure comes from jihadists both inside Pakistan and South and Central Asia. While there is appreciation of this danger, there are few substantive studies that identify and explore specific groups motivated and potentially capable of acquiring Pakistani nuclear weapons and/or fissile materials. This report fills that gap by exploring the Pakistani Neo-Taliban (PNT) and the groups that fill its ranks. The Federation of American Scientists' Terrorism Analysis Project (TAP) is conducting a multi-year study of nuclear weapon and fissile material security in South Asia. The researchers' intention is to highlight specific elements of the nuclear fuel-cycles and nuclear weapon infrastructures of both Pakistan and India that warrant the international community's greatest concern. TAP's overarching methodological approach involves quantitative analyses of the specific violent non-state actors most likely to exploit nuclear weapons-related opportunities in Pakistan and India. While the author still believes that it is unlikely Pakistan will lose control of its nuclear materials or weapons, this report makes it clear that the security situation in Pakistan is only getting worse. Ironically, this fact arguably makes Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure more secure: extremists are generally able to meet their tactical requirements and strategic objectives without the perceived need for weapons of mass destruction. This situation, however, could quickly reverse. The greatest threat to Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure comes from jihadists both inside Pakistan and South and Central Asia. While there is appreciation of this danger, there are few substantive studies that identify and explore specific groups motivated and potentially capable of acquiring Pakistani nuclear weapons and/or fissile materials. This report fills that gap by exploring the Pakistani Neo-Taliban (PNT) and the groups that fill its ranks.