Senegal

Senegal's contentious politics pose the most likely threat to stability in the coming years. President Abdoulaye Wade's intention to run for reelection in 2012 is likely to be a lightning rod of opposition. His victory would not be accepted by a significant proportion of Senegal's urban population; neither would any attempt by President Wade to line up his son, Karim, as his successor. Although unlikely to provoke any real and substantive instability, three other sources of political conflict remain noteworthy: intrareligious tensions among the Muslim majority; policy debates arising from anxiety about the increasing role of religion and politics in the era of democracy; and the ongoing conflict in the Casamance region, the southern portion of Senegal, which is largely cut off from the north by the country of Gambia. In the long term, the economy will remain a major challenge to stability, regardless of the government in power. Sturctural problems must be addressed, such as diversifying a limited resource base, providing for a swelling urban population, and employing a growing class of educated youth with rising expectations. The government's ability to manage urban poverty will prove crucial to maintaining credibility and quelling discontent.