Numbers, Prediction, and War

For the military professional or wargamer interested in understanding and applying the historical lessons of combat as derived from quantitative military historical analysis, the historical simulation has been and will continue to be a very powerful tool. Uses a system of values, they call the Quantified Judgment Model, to determine the value of numerous numeric combat factors like surprise, supply, air power, tactical expertise, weapons, mobility etc. Then compares the model to the outcomes of 81 actual battles. One conclusion is that the German soldiers were 20% more effective than their American counterparts. To the casual reader, all this math may be dull but to a simulation designer would provide numerous helpful data points and synthesis.