Risk in agriculture

This paper is the tenth in a series of records of agricultural symposia presented at the World Bank beginning in 1980. This volume contains papers presented at the opening day plenary session and during the parallel sessions on both days of the symposium. It is designed to further enhance the knowledge of Bank staff working in agriculture and rural development and as a means of exchanging knowledge with others working in agricultural development. The authors review agricultural development efforts involving bringing greater equity to this sector and raising productivity and living conditions among communal farmers, without sacrificing overall agricultural output. There are five crucial links between agriculture, rural development, and the Bank's areas of special emphasis: poverty reduction, food security, the environment, forestry, and women in development. In the first presentation, the author analyzes risk in agriculture from a macroeconomic and low-income consumer perspective. It is stressed that an agricultural-led growth strategy entails substantial short and medium term risks. The second presentation uses the daily rainfall record from 1905 to 1987 for Niamey, Niger, to develop an illustrative example of Response Farming programs for managing risk associated with variable season rainfall. The final presentation analyzes Crop Insurance and points out that evidence is accumulating that public sector all-risk crop insurance schemes are a costly failure.