Econometric tests of asset price bubbles

Econometric tests of asset price bubbles

by Refet S. Gurkaynak

Part of Finance and economics discussion series ;

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"Can asset price bubbles be detected? This survey of econometric tests of asset price bubbles shows that, despite recent advances, econometric detection of asset price bubbles cannot be achieved with a satisfactory degree of certainty. For each paper that finds evidence of bubbles, there is another one that fits the data equally well without allowing for a bubble. We are still unable to distinguish bubbles from time-varying or regime-switching fundamentals, while many small sample econometrics problems of bubble tests remain unresolved"--Federal Reserve Board web site.

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