Natural experiments in European economic history

This dissertation consists of three essays related both by their common topic--an investigation into the long-run determinants of economic progress in European history--and by their reliance on natural experiments as a source to identify causal effects. The first essay approaches the "Weber hypothesis" by considering the growth of German cities over the period 1300-1900. I exploit the heterogeneity and stability of denominational affiliations across the territories of the Holy Roman Empire. I find no effects of Protestantism on economic growth; this result is robust to the inclusion of a variety of controls, and does not depend on data selection or small sample size. In addition, Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development. I also analyze the endogeneity of religious choice; instrumental variables estimates of the effects of Protestantism are similar to the OLS results. The second essay considers the impact of the French Revolution on neighboring countries. French invasion removed the legal and economic barriers that protected the nobility, guilds, and urban oligarchies and established the principle of equality before the law, preparing those economies to reap the benefits of new economic and industrial opportunities in the second half of the 19th century. We find that areas occupied by the French experienced more rapid urbanization and economic growth, especially after 1850. A two-stage least squares strategy confirms that, within the territories of Germany, the economic and social reforms instigated by the French had a causal effect on economic growth. The last essay analyzes the "Commercial Revolution" of the late Middle Ages. We present a new dataset that documents the economic transformation of the German lands of the Holy Roman Empire using information on the incorporation of cities and the establishment of markets. Using this dataset, we find that medieval universities, exogenously established in Germany as a result of the Papal Schism, supported increased economic activity. We argue that medieval universities affected market expansion by training thousands of individuals in the law; these individuals then went on to shape the legal institutions that enforced contracts and structured economic activity.