The Rise of China's Middle Class and the Prospects for Democratization - Lipset's Economic Modernization Theory, ASEAN, Taiwan, Transition, Confucius versus Realists, Industrialization, Urbanization

Since Deng Xiaoping instituted economic reforms under the "reform and open" policy in 1978, the Chinese Communist Party has overseen a gradualist approach to modernizing China's economy. A new Chinese middle class has emerged with China's economic reforms and economic growth. According to Seymour Martin Lipset's modernization theory, there is a strong relationship between socioeconomic development and the emergence of democratic politics. The growth of an educated middle class, according to Lipset, will demand democratization as a means to achieve more participation in politics. This thesis assesses the validity of Lipset's argument that socioeconomic development is likely to result in a democratic transition through the growth of a liberal middle class in the case of contemporary China. This assessment assesses how closely China's middle class fits Lipset's model and whether China's middle class displays characteristics that suggest that Lipset's framework of democratization will hold true in China. Since spreading democracy around the world was reasserted as a long-range U.S. objective in the early 1990s, attention has focused on prospects for democratization in China. This thesis illuminates the political implications of China's growing middle class and argues that China's economic modernization does not guarantee democratization. This is important because the rationale for American politics of engagement with China rests in part on the assertion that economic growth over the long run may lead to China's democratization. CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. PURPOSE * B. CONCEPTUAL SIGNIFICANCE * C. LITERATURE REVIEW * 1. Approaches to Democratization * 2. Perspectives on Classes and Democratic Behaviors * 3. Taiwan as a Case Study * 4. Opinions on U.S. Implications * 5. Overall Literature Assessment * D. METHODOLOGY * E. SOURCES * F. THESIS SYNOPSIS * CHAPTER II - REQUISITES FOR DEMOCRACY * A. INTRODUCTION * B. LIPSET'S MODEL * 1. Industrialization * 2. Urbanization * 3. Education * 4. Wealth * C. SUPPORTING AND OPPOSING ARGUMENTS * 1. Huntington's Argument: Supporting * 2. Przeworski's Argument: Opposing * 3. Pei's Argument: The Reality in China * D. QUANTIFYING THE GROWTH OF CHINA'S MIDDLE CLASS * E. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER III - CHINA'S MIDDLE CLASS IN DEMOCRATIZATION * A. INTRODUCTION * B. THE ROLE OF THE MIDDLE CLASS IN DEMOCRATIZATION * C. WHO IS CHINA'S MIDDLE CLASS * 1. Liberal versus Conservative * 2. Confucius versus Realists * D. THE PROSPECTS FOR FAILURE * E. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER IV - TAIWAN CASE STUDY: ASIAN MIDDLE CLASS AT WORK * A. INTRODUCTION * B. THE TWO ECONOMIES: THE RISE OF TAIWAN AND CHINA * 1. The Comparison * 2. The Contrast * 3. Conclusion * C. THE TWO STATES * 1. The Taiwanese Roadmap and how the PRC is Already on It * 2. The PRC's Path to a Taiwanese Roadmap of Transition * 3. Conclusion * CHAPTER V - REPLICATING TAIWAN'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT * A. INTRODUCTION * B. THE ROLE OF WAR * C. THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES * D. ROLE OF THE STATE * E. THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC AND NON-ECONOMIC FACTORS * F. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER VI - CONCLUSION * A. INTRODUCTION * B. PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRATIZATION * C. CONCLUSION