Exploring the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion in Beijing, 1999-2013

This research focuses on analyzing the spatial patterns and driving forces of built-up expansion in Beijing during 1999-2013. During this period, land leasing by the local government and the decentralization strategy in urban planning facilitates land development on the urban fringe. In order to investigate the spatial patterns of the expansion of urban built-up area and to unfold the relationship between non-urban to urban conversion and the selected explanatory factors, remote sensing data, GIS and statistic tools are utilized. First, sector and concentric circle analysis reveals that within the study time frame, Beijing extends greatly to the northeast and southeast, which is driven by the economic growth opportunities in these areas, especially the designation of CBD and Development Zones. Second, this research uses the classic logistic regression and the Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) model as statistic tools to further explain the relations between urban expansion and factors from three categories, natural environment, proximity to centers and transportation, and socioeconomic status. According to the results, the distance to CBD, distance to sub-centers, and distance to main roads are proved to be influential factors during the study time frame. The regression results also unveil that the population growth is in line with the urban expansion, indicating the interactions between population dynamics and the change of urban form. In addition, spatially varying relationships are examined through mapping the local parameter estimates of the GWLR model. Each factor has various significance and parameter estimates over space and different urban development modes are found in different areas of the city.